Risk Under a Business-As-Usual Scenario

Business-as-usual for consumers means that as population growth, urbanization, and income growth continue the rising middle class consumes more food and demands more meat and energy intensive products while wasting a lot of food, while for producers it means that intensive agriculture continues to apply lots of fertilizer and pesticides and use lots of water. Looking specifically at cereals and meat, per capita meat consumption would rise from 40 kilograms to 50 kilograms in 2050, and cereal consumption would also rise because that cereal is also demanded to feed to livestock. The prices of major commodities would continue to rise because demand would rise, meaning that we would not be able to eradicate hunger or poverty by 2030, two of the Sustainable Development Goals. Food markets would be quite volatile, and high prices of food would drag economic growth in these countries, and overweight and obesity rates would increase. Business as usual would also hamper rural development, the eradication of poverty, and the creation of jobs in rural areas. Without changes to the agricultural system we would see further conversion of natural ecosystems into agricultural land, soil and land degradation, water shortages, pollution, and biodiversity loss. This agriculture is fossil fuel intensive. This chapter uses the case study of China, which is the world’s largest producer and consumer of agriculture. If we want to eradicate poverty and hunger by 2030, and achieve many economic, social and environmental goals by then and beyond, we have to address responsible consumption and healthier diets and have interventions that achieve more significant gains in crop and livestock productivity, which requires accelerating science and technology, influencing behavior, knowledge of people, and developing rural areas into attractive places to live in, as well as creating long-term visions and goals and concrete targets. 

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